The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) in its report has said that India's trade deficit (difference between imports and exports) with China is likely to widen further to $106 billion in the calendar year 2025, as import growth significantly outpaces export growth to the neighbouring country. 

GTRI said that Indian shipments to China declined to about $15 billion in 2024 from about $23 billion in 2021. In 2025, country's exports to China are estimated to improve to $17.5 billion, still lower than a previous levels. On the other hand, India's imports from China have climbed much faster - to $102.6 billion in 2022, $91.8 billion in 2023 and $109.6 billion in 2024 from just $87.7 billion in 2021. In 2025, the country's inbound shipments are estimated at $123.5 billion. This has pushed India's trade deficit with China to $94.5 billion in 2024 from $64.7 billion in 2021.  

According to the GTRI, nearly 80 per cent of India's imports from China are concentrated in just four product groups - electronics, machinery, organic chemicals and plastics. During January-October 2025, India's imports from China were dominated by electronics, which totalled $38 billion. This included imports of mobile phone components ($8.6 billion), integrated circuits ($6.2 billion), laptops ($4.5 billion), solar cells and modules ($3 billion), flat-panel displays ($2.6 billion), lithium-ion batteries ($2.3 billion) and memory chips ($1.8 billion). 

Machinery imports followed at $25.9 billion, with transformers alone accounting for $2.1 billion, highlighting India's dependence on Chinese capital goods for power and industrial projects. Organic chemicals reached $11.5 billion, driven by antibiotics imports of $1.7 billion, underscoring China's dominance in pharmaceutical intermediates. Plastics imports during the period stood at $6.3 billion, including $871 million of PVC resin, while steel and steel products amounted to $4.6 billion and medical and scientific equipment added $2.5 billion.