Barclays Sees Substantial Forint Gain If Orban Loses 2026 Vote

Barclays Plc said the forint could gain as much as 5.5% should Hungary’s opposition beat the Fidesz party of Prime Minister Viktor Orban in next year’s election.

While Orban has led his party to four consecutive wins since 2010, the opposition Tisza Party’s comfortable lead in surveys indicate there is a realistic chance for a change of government in the April vote, Barclays analysts Sheryl Dong and Marek Raczko said in a note Monday.

A victory for Tisza’s Peter Magyar would help boost the currency by unlocking Hungary’s European Union funding, much of which is frozen by the bloc, Barclays said. The comments represented some of the earliest indications of concrete trades to position for a shift in regime in Budapest, which until last year was an unlikely scenario.

“An end to Orban’s eurosceptic government should offer a positive backdrop for the forint and Hungarian government bonds, in a similar fashion to market reaction after the Polish parliamentary elections in 2023,” Dong and Raczko wrote.

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The forint has already outperformed peers this year, hitting an 11-month high of around 394.8 per euro on Monday. Barclays recommended buying a 9-month EURHUF digital put option with strike price of 385 at a 14.4% premium.