Asia Set for Cautious Open After US Tariff Ruling: Markets Wrap
Asian investors may tread cautiously on Monday as uncertainty deepens following a U.S. federal appeals court ruling that President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs were illegal.
The dollar was steady against major peers in early trading while US equity futures edged higher. Contracts indicate losses for Australian and Japanese shares at the open, and gains in Hong Kong. US bond futures nudged lower, with the cash market closed for the Labor Day holiday.
In the latest twist to Trump’s tariff campaign, a that his global levies — which weigh heavily on Asia — were illegally imposed under an emergency law. For now, the duties remain in place, with the administration likely to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court or ask the Court of International Trade to revisit the case first.
“While a possible step towards no (or fewer, or lesser) tariffs would be positive for global trade and risk sentiment, uncertainty has ratcheted up a notch,” ANZ Group Holdings analysts including David Croy wrote in a note to clients.
Political risks in Southeast Asia’s two biggest emerging markets are also back in focus. Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto canceled a trip to China after deadly unrest over living costs and inequality, with protesters targeting the finance minister and several lawmakers. In Thailand, parties are jockeying to form the next government following the disqualification of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
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US stocks slid on Friday amid a selloff in tech shares, led by Nvidia Corp., while Dell Technologies Inc. sank amid tighter profit margins on servers. AI infrastructure shares slid as Marvell Technology Inc.’s outlook raised concern about data-center equipment demand.
The market is now bracing for a historically weak September for US and global shares as institutional investors re-balance, retail traders slow their buying and volatility picks up. While macro events are generally more determinant for the market’s direction, seasonal factors can exacerbate moves triggered by the likes of economic data or monetary policy.
September’s record remains on traders’ minds “but few managers will liquidate core holdings on seasonality alone,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a note. “It seems unlikely that, simply because we’ve moved into September, we’ll suddenly see a radical shift in conditions — especially as the macro environment hasn’t meaningfully changed.”
Eyes in Asia will soon shift to the RatingDog China manufacturing activity data to help assess the in the economy and the of the Chinese stock rally. The official gauge Sunday remained stuck in contraction in August, as a government crackdown on price wars holds back production and offsets the boost for manufacturers of the US’s extended trade truce.
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In commodities, oil was little changed early Monday after its first monthly loss since April amid concerns over a looming supply glut and geopolitical issues. Gold was steady after closing at a record high on Friday.
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