UBP Sees Decade‑Long Yuan Rally on Fundamentals, Policy Reforms

Union Bancaire Privée has made the Chinese yuan one of its strongest bets, expecting the currency to keep rising against the dollar over the next decade due to improving fundamentals and policy reforms.

In a March report, the Swiss private bank raised its conviction on yuan appreciation against the dollar to the highest level, matching its bullish stance on gold. UBP , which manages over CHF150 billion ($190 billion), now forecasts the onshore yuan to reach 6.70 per dollar by the end of 2026.

“We believe the yuan will enter a decade long secular bull rally, favored by fundamentals and policy reforms,” Carlos Casanova , senior economist at UBP, told Bloomberg News. “Moreover, the yuan appears to be undervalued by 10%-50%” when measured against indicators such as purchasing power parity, the real effective exchange rate or interest rate differentials, he added.

The Geneva-based firm joins a of yuan bulls who anticipate the currency to from Beijing’s push to lift the currency’s global role and the economy.

The yuan touched a three‑year high against the dollar earlier this year. Since the Iran war began in late February, the currency has slipped about 0.5%, yet it has outperformed most global peers, showing resilience to surging oil prices.

In the near term, risk‑off sentiment could strengthen the dollar, but over the medium term, UBP expects “a return to the theme of yuan strength,” said Casanova. “The conflict in the Middle East puts pressure on US debt, further supporting our view that the US dollar could weaken more structurally.”