Indian equity markets are likely to make a positive start on Thursday, supported by easing tensions in the Middle East. Traders are likely to adopt wait-and-watch approach ahead of weekly F&O expiry. However, persistent outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) may limit the upside.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Icra retains India's FY26 GDP forecast at 6.2%: The rating agency Icra has retained its India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2025-26 at 6.2 per cent, assuming well-distributed monsoons and crude oil prices averaging around $70/barrel.

Key indicators point at economic resilience despite global tensions: Reserve Bank's Bulletin said that key economic indicators point towards resilient economic activity in India across industrial and services sectors amid twin shocks of global trade policy uncertainties and heightened geopolitical tensions.

SEPC, IAMAI sign MoU to promote digital services exports: The Services Export Promotion Council (SEPC) and the Internet and Mobile Association of India have reportedly signed an MoU to promote India’s digital services exports and strengthen the global presence of Indian digital businesses.

Government disburses Rs 21,534 crore under 12 PLI schemes so far: The government has disbursed Rs 21,534 crore under Production-Linked Incentive schemes for 12 sectors, including electronics and pharma, since the launch of the support measure to boost domestic manufacturing.

FIIs remain net sellers: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in Indian equities. FIIs sold Rs 2,427.74 crore on June 25, 2025 in the cash segment of the market, as per provisional data published on the exchange. 

On the global front: The U.S. markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday as FedEx and General Mills provided disappointing profit estimates. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday, as traders cautiously monitor developments in the Middle East following ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks extended gaining streak for the second consecutive session and ended nearly 1 per cent higher on Wednesday, tracking a rally in global markets amid signs of easing tensions in the Middle East following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 700.40 points or 0.85% to 82,755.51 and the CNX Nifty was up by 200.40 points or 0.80% to 25,244.75.   

Some of the important factors in trade:

Free trade agreements with US, EU to be concluded soon: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that negotiations for the proposed free trade agreements with the US and European Union (EU) are progressing at a fast pace and would be concluded soon. All efforts are being made to boost exports to achieve the ambitious target of $2 trillion by 2030.

India-US trade deal to reduce surplus: A research report by CRISIL said the imminent bilateral trade agreements (BTA) with the US is likely to reduce India's goods trade surplus with that country. During the financial year 2024-25, India's trade surplus with the US stood at $41.18 billion.

India, UK to sign trade pact by July end: A private report said that the process of legal scrubbing of the India-UK free trade agreement (FTA) text is progressing at a faster pace, and the pact is expected to be signed by the end of July.