Indian equity markets are likely to make flat to positive start on Thursday amid rising optimism over India-US trade deal after US President Donald Trump hinted a Indonesia-style trade pact with India. Further, investors will closely watch the Q1 earnings release of big companies like Axis Bank, Wipro and Jio Financial Services for more cues.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Trump hints at Indonesia-style trade pact with India: US President Donald Trump has said that the proposed trade deal with India would be on the lines of what America has finalised with Indonesia.

Government clears farm scheme with Rs 24000 crore annual outlay for 6 years: The Union Cabinet has approved Prime Minister Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana with an annual outlay of Rs 24,000 crore for six years to boost crop yields in 100 districts, benefiting about 1.7 crore farmers.

RBI's commitment to keep sufficient liquidity will facilitate rate cut transmission: Fitch Ratings has said that the RBI's substantial liquidity infusions into the banking system since early 2025 and its commitment to keep sufficient liquidity in the system will facilitate transmission of 100 basis points rate cut in 2025.

Thermal power sector stocks will be in limelight: Crisil Ratings has indicated that the thermal power segment is expected to attract Rs 2.3 trillion worth of investments over the next three fiscals, on account of renewed focus to help meet India's growing energy demand.

There will be some action in General insurance sector stocks: CareEdge Ratings in its recent report said that India's non-life insurance industry registered a 5.2% year-on-year increase in premiums to Rs 23,422.5 crore in June 2025.

On the global front: The US markets ended higher on Wednesday amid Trump denying plans to fire Powell and sign of easing inflation. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday amid investors digesting weak trade data from Japan and renewed geopolitical uncertainty following comments from US President Donald Trump.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended with marginal gains in the range-bound session on Wednesday as investors stayed on the sidelines amid weak cues from other Asian markets and tariff-related uncertainty. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 63.57 points or 0.08% to 82,634.48 and the CNX Nifty was up by 16.25 points or 0.06% to 25,212.05.

Some of the important factors in trade:

India economy likely to grow at 6.5% in FY26 despite geo-political tensions: Expressing an optimism over India’s economic growth prospects, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Chairman S Mahendra Dev has said that the Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY26, despite geo-political tensions and trade policy uncertainties. 

India's merchandise exports remain flat at $35.14 billion in June 2025: The commerce ministry in its latest data has showed that India's merchandise exports remained almost flat at $35.14 billion in June 2025 as against $35.16 billion same month last year.

Asset quality stress in NBFC-MFI sector likely to persist in H1 FY26: Credit rating agency ICRA’s report stated that asset quality stress in the Non-Banking Financial Company - Microfinance Institution (NBFC-MFI) sector surged in 2024-25 amid borrower overleveraging as well as operational challenges, and the pressure is expected to persist in H1 FY26.