The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said that India's exports to its largest foreign market, the US, have suffered a sharp reversal due to aggressive tariff hikes. It said between May and October 2025, shipments fell 28.5 per cent, from $8.83 billion to $6.31 billion. The decline followed a rapid escalation in US duties that began at 10 per cent on April 2, rose to 25 per cent on August 7, and reached 50 per cent by late August, making Indian goods among the most heavily taxed of any US trading partner. In comparison, China faced tariffs of about 30 per cent, while Japan dealt with only 15 per cent.

GTRI said tariff-exempt items such as smartphones, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products accounted for 40.3 per cent of October exports but still fell 25.8 per cent, from $3.42 billion in May to $2.54 billion in October -- a contraction of $881 million. It said that products facing uniform global tariffs -- mainly iron, steel, aluminum, copper and auto parts -- formed just 7.6 per cent of shipments in October. Exports in this category fell 23.8 per cent between May and October, sliding from $629 million in May to $480 million in October, or about $149 million. The steepest decline occurred in labour-intensive products where India alone faced 50 per cent tariffs. These goods, which represented 52.1 per cent of October exports, collapsed 31.2 per cent, falling from $4.78 billion to $3.29 billion -- nearly $1.5 billion erased in just five months. 

It also said smartphones, India's single biggest product line to the US, suffered a 36 per cent decline, sliding from $2.29 billion in May to $1.50 billion in October -- a loss of almost $790 million. Monthly exports fell consistently from $2 billion in June to $1.52 billion in July, crashed to $ 964.8 million in August, eased further to $884.6 million in September, and finally recovered to $1.5 billion in October. Pharmaceutical exports, also dipped marginally 1.6 per cent, from $745.6 million to $733.6 million. Similarly, petroleum product shipments declined 15.5 per cent, falling from $291 million in May to $246 million in October. Further, it said that labour-intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, textiles, garments, chemicals, and seafood recorded a dip in the outbound shipments. Chemical exports tumbled 38 per cent, declining from $537 million to $333 million.