Amid ongoing U.S. and Israeli operations in Iran, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal has stated that India’s exports to global markets could be affected if the West Asia conflict continues. He added, however, that exports for the previous financial year are still expected to remain on a positive trajectory despite the crisis. He noted that the situation has already had a noticeable impact on both imports and exports in the past month, particularly because energy constitutes a significant share of India’s import market.

He noted that West Asia is an important market, accounting for around 12-13% of India’s exports, and exports to the said region would be directly affected. He added that if the conflict persists, exports to other parts of the world could also be impacted as global value chains adjust. He emphasized that the government is aware of the situation and monitoring it closely. He further stated that the exact impact of the West Asia crisis on Indian exports will become clearer in the coming weeks.

He also said the Centre is working to minimise disruptions to supply chains as much as possible, even as it prepares for a potential decline in both exports and imports. He noted that the impact is unlikely to be one-sided, with imports also expected to fall alongside exports. He further explained that even if the conflict ends soon, its effects could persist for months or even years, depending on the extent of damage to supply chains and infrastructure. He added that at this stage, it is difficult to take a long-term view of the situation. He added that various arms of the government are working together to prioritise the limited supply of LPG and mitigate shortages, including by diversifying imports and sourcing from alternative suppliers. He further said that the government and industry are collaborating to identify ways to strengthen and make supply chains more resilient.