After US president Donald Trump imposed 100% ad valorem duty rate on the import of certain patented pharmaceuticals and associated pharmaceutical ingredients, on April 2, the think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that the decision is unlikely to significantly impact India, given its dominance in low-cost generic drug exports to the US. The decision followed the Section 232 investigation launched on May 1, 2025, which cited national security risks from dependence on foreign drug supplies. GTRI pointed that over 90% of US drug use are generic medicines and are exempted from this order, likely for about a year, to avoid shortages and price increases. In 2025, India exported $9.7 billion worth of pharmaceuticals to the US, accounting for 38% of its global pharma exports of $25.8 billion.

However, GTRI noted that Indian firms producing branded or speciality drugs, or supplying inputs for patented medicines, could face tariff pressure. The tariffs will mainly affect Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark, the United Kingdom and Japan, which are major exporters of patented and high-value drugs, including biologics, to the US. Further, the order does not exempt countries with trade arrangements with the US, including the European Union and Japan. Besides, the future uncertainty about tariffs being extended to generic medicines is remain a larger concern. It added that the order timing, issued on the first anniversary of the earlier ‘Liberation Day’ tariff push, signals a continuation of Washington's aggressive trade strategy. The US had announced sweeping tariffs on about 60 countries, including India, on April 2, 2025.

GTRI highlighted that Washington is likely to rely more heavily on tools such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (national security) and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 (foreign trade barriers) to justify tariffs on a wide range of products and countries, as the US Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs. Moreover, it pointed that this creates a deeper problem for trading partners, even the countries who sign trade deals with the US, as they are not insulated from such actions. These investigations can still be launched irrespective of existing agreements.