Indian equity markets are likely to make gap-down opening on Thursday amid persistent geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Investor sentiment may remain cautious after Iran reportedly fired on three vessels and seized two ships over alleged maritime violations, dismissing U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire extension as ineffective.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India to grow above 7% even if crude oil costs $90-100/barrel: The industry body Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) said that the Indian economy, largely driven by consumption, has the potential to grow over 7 per cent annually even if crude oil costs $90-100 per barrel.

Net sales growth of FDI companies moderated to 8.7% in FY25: The RBI data showed that net sales growth of the select foreign direct investment (FDI) companies moderated to 8.7 per cent in 2024-25 from 9.4 per cent in the previous year,

India, Japan hold first AI strategic dialogue: Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said that top officials of India and Japan have held discussions on strategic cooperation with a view to promoting co-creation, enhancing policy convergence and encouraging development of solutions in industrial domains to foster a robust, innovative and trustworthy AI ecosystem.

RBI proposes measures to strengthen Prepaid Payment Instruments framework: The RBI has proposed several measures to develop a more conducive framework for the long-term growth of Prepaid Payment Instruments (PPIs), including enhanced transaction security and clearer rules on refunds and grievance redressal.

Agri exports up 2.8% to $52.55 billion in 2025-26: The commerce ministry data showed that the country's agriculture exports rose by 2.8 per cent to $52.55 billion in 2025-26 from $51.12 billion in 2024-25 despite global uncertainties.

On the global front: The US markets ended in green on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday despite the broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight.

Back home, snapping a three-day gaining streak, Indian equity benchmarks traded with a negative bias throughout the session and ended around a per cent lower on Wednesday, due to heavy selling in IT, TECK and Auto stocks and an uptick in crude oil prices. Foreign fund outflows and fears of prolonged instability in West Asia also dented market sentiments. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 756.84 points or 0.95% to 78,516.49 and the CNX Nifty was down by 198.50 points or 0.81% to 24,378.10. 

Some of the important factors in trade: 

India's fiscal deficit may exceed budgeted target for FY27: Research firm BMI has said that India's fiscal deficit may exceed the budgeted target for FY27 and potentially hit 4.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the government's policy response to the ongoing West Asia conflict could put pressure on public finances. 

Indian exporters should engage with US importers to take benefit of US tariff refunds: With US initiating the process of refunding reciprocal tariffs starting April 20, the think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has suggested that Indian exporters should proactively engage with American buyers to seek a share of the refunded duties. 

Govt extends interest subvention to small exporters in iron, steel sector: Amid global uncertainties affecting Indian exporters, the government has extended interest subvention benefits to micro and small enterprises involved in the export of 167 specific categories of iron and steel products, aiming to support the trading community.