With the anticipated emergence of the El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that India is likely to receive below normal monsoon rains in 2026. It noted that the emergence of El Nino conditions in June -- after a gap of three years -- could impact the southwest monsoon, which is the lifeline of India's farm-based economy. India is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall during the monsoon season (June to September), compared to the long-period average (1971-2020) of 87 cm for seasonal rainfall over India.

M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology of the IMD said ‘Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of long-period average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5 per cent.’ Below normal seasonal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except in some areas over Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular India -- where normal to above normal rainfall can take place.

El Nino is the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that impacts weather across the world. The last time El Nino conditions developed was in 2023. Since 2000, these conditions have emerged in 2002, 2009, and 2015. El Nino conditions are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. Currently, weak La Nina conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. La Nina usually brings a temporary cooling effect on global average temperatures. Also, climate models show that during the second half of the monsoon season, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions can develop.

The IMD gives the first forecast for monsoon season rainfall around mid-April and an updated forecast in the last week of May. About 75 per cent of India's total rainfall comes during the monsoon season, making it essential for irrigation, drinking water and electricity generation through hydropower. Nearly 64 per cent of Indians depend on agriculture, which mainly relies on the southwest monsoon as only about 55 per cent of the net sown area is covered by irrigation. The primary rain-bearing system is crucial for replenishing reservoirs.